Final CFP Outlook: What Notre Dame, Miami, and Alabama Could Face
Three teams surge toward the last two playoff spots. Who earns the invite?
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Notre Dame didn’t play this weekend, yet they might be the biggest winner in the College Football Playoff race. Watching from South Bend, the Irish benefited from Texas Tech’s Big 12 title-game performance and Georgia’s emphatic win over Alabama in the SEC title game. Could those results be enough to vault Notre Dame into the field?
Where does Notre Dame land in the CFP rankings, and which bubble team finally earns a berth? And who misses out? Here is my final CFP projection as the Big Ten title game unfolds in Indianapolis.
Notre Dame’s Seeding
It’s fairly obvious Notre Dame will be in, but what seed will they receive? One certainty is that Alabama must drop after a subpar showing against Georgia, which nudges Notre Dame upward.
How far Alabama falls remains to be seen, but the focus right now is the Irish.
I’m pegging Notre Dame at No. 9, setting up a game in Norman against No. 8 Oklahoma with a Rose Bowl berth on the line.
The Final Playoff Spot: Who Gets In?
With the field mostly settled beyond the last spot, the question is which bubble team earns the final berth.
To be candid, there are concerns about the CFP, ESPN, and SEC alignment—there seems to be collaboration that can color perception. Still, common sense matters, especially in this stretch.
Alabama has not looked like a true playoff contender for weeks and owns the clearest blemish of any potential entrant this season: an early-season loss to Florida State (a 5-7 team at the time).
My pick for the final spot is Miami to slip into the playoff, while Alabama heads to the Citrus Bowl.
CFP Projection — The Field:
As we head into the final two games of the weekend (with the Big Ten and ACC title games underway), here’s how the field could shake out:
- Ohio State (assuming Big Ten title win; if they lose, Indiana could leap)
- Georgia
- Indiana (swap with Ohio State if Indiana wins the Big Ten title game)
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Miami (FL)
- Virginia (assuming ACC title game victory)
- Tulane
CFP Bracket — Based on Projections:
First-Round Byes:
1) Ohio State
2) Georgia
3) Indiana
4) Texas Tech
First-Round Matchups:
5) Oregon vs. 12) Tulane (Eugene, Oregon)
6) Ole Miss vs. 11) Virginia (Oxford, Mississippi)
7) Texas A&M vs. 10) Miami (College Station, Texas)
8) Oklahoma vs. 9) Notre Dame (Norman, Oklahoma)
Projected Second-Round Games:
1) Ohio State vs. 9) Notre Dame (Rose Bowl)
4) Texas Tech vs. 5) Oregon (Cotton Bowl)
3) Indiana vs. 6) Ole Miss (Orange Bowl)
2) Georgia vs. 7) Texas A&M (Sugar Bowl)
Projected National Semifinals:
1) Ohio State vs. 5) Oregon (Fiesta Bowl)
2) Georgia vs. 3) Indiana (Peach Bowl)
Projected National Championship:
Ohio State defeats Indiana in the championship game (Miami, Florida)
Published 3 minutes ago
Nick Shepkowski — Notre Dame coverage for SI
Nick Shepkowski serves as Managing Editor for Notre Dame On SI. He began covering Chicago sports for WSCR The Score and has contributed to CBS Radio, Audacy, NBC Sports, and FOX Sports, later spearheading the Notre Dame wire site for USA TODAY.
